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The Semi Bluff
The Semi Bluff >
Semi
Bluffing EV Examples
Semi-bluffing made simple at
Deuces
Cracked covers everything you need to know about semi bluffing, and then
some more. That video is the perfect compliment to this semi bluffing strategy
article.
Watching your bluff get called hurts; it really does hurt a lot. Not only
that, but repeated poorly executed bluffs eat away at your bankroll causing you
to lose more and more money from one session to the next.
Imagine if there was a way to take the sting out of getting called when you
bluff. Better yet, what if you could take all your bluffs and almost instantly
make them profitable?
Allow me to introduce... the semi bluff.
*waits for a roar of applause and tears of gratitude and
relief*
What is a semi bluff?
A semi-bluff is when you bluff, but you still have a chance
of improving to make the best hand on future cards.
For example, raising with A
4
on a flop of K
Q
2
would be classed as a semi-bluff. It’s unlikely that you have the best
hand right now (making it a bluff), but a diamond on the turn or the river would
give you a flush and the best hand (making it a semi-bluff).
What’s the difference between a total bluff and a semi bluff?
- Total bluff = no (or very little) chance of winning the
hand if called.
- Semi bluff = some chance of winning the hand if called.
A total bluff has absolutely no chance of winning the hand if called.
Therefore, it has 0%
equity in
the pot.
Note: To be more precise, I’d go
ahead and say that any hand with less than 10% equity can be classed a “total”
bluff. Sometimes even the most clear-cut bluffs will have
some equity for whatever reason.
Semi bluffs have a decent chance of winning the hand if
called, so they have at least some equity in the pot. As you can imagine,
different semi bluffs will have varying chances of winning the hand, which means
that some will have more equity than others.
For example, semi bluffing with a flush and straight draw hand will have far
more equity than semi bluffing with a gutshot straight draw. In general, more
chance of improving = more equity.
Semi bluffs can also only be made when there are more cards to come (so on
the flop or the turn), as those unknown cards are what’s giving you the
opportunity to improve. So no, you can’t semi bluff on the
river. On the river, you’re either making a pure bluff (0% equity) or
you’re
betting for value and want your opponent to call.
Semi bluffing diagram (range of semi bluffs).

A diagram to highlight the types of bet based on your equity in the hand.
- A few important notes about this diagram.
- The less equity you have in the hand the riskier your bluff becomes.
- If you have little or no equity in the hand, your bet is virtually a
total bluff.
- If you have more than 50% equity you should be betting for value and
hoping to see your opponent to call instead of fold.
If your bluff gets called, you’d much rather have a 35% chance of making the
best hand than a 12% chance. It makes mathematical sense for a semi bluffs with
higher equity to be more profitable than semi bluffs with lower equity, because
you end up winning more often with a higher equity percentage.
How important is semi bluffing?
If you’re making a bluff, it’s far more profitable to make
semi bluffs than pure bluffs.
Try not to think of “total bluffs” as one thing and “semi bluffs” as another.
They are both bluffs at the end of the day. Instead, think of semi-bluffs as the
better version of "pure bluffs" or "total bluffs" - the good looking and
wealthier older brother if you will.
The advantages of semi bluffing.
When you semi bluff, you still have the opportunity to win the hand. As a
result, semi bluffs are inherently better than total bluffs.
The fact that you have more equity in the hand with semi
bluffs means you’re saving much more money over the long run. With total
bluffs, you don’t have that equity cushion to help you when your bluff gets
called.
For example, on a board of QT3 it’s far more +EV to bluff with AK than it is
to bluff with 72o.
- With AK your bet has
fold
equity + actual equity (overcards + gutshot).
- With 72o your bet has fold equity only.
The more equity you have when you’re putting money in to the pot the better.
In fact, in the example above betting with AK is almost certainly
+EV,
whereas betting with 72o is likely to be -EV.
This is a prime example of how semi bluffs are better than total bluffs
during play.
Additional advantages of semi bluffing.
It gives you the initiative in the hand. If you bet
out instead of checking, you gain the
initiative.
This means that it’s more likely that your opponent will check to you on future
streets, making your decisions a lot easier.
It can disguise your hand. Some players will expect
you to check and call with drawing hands, not bet and/or raise. Therefore, you
may well win more when you hit your draw because your opponent is less likely to
give you credit for having it.
Good hands to semi bluff.
- Big flush draws.
- Open-ended straight draws.
- Flush draws + open-ended straight draws.
All of these hands have good amounts of equity against made hands like pairs,
which is the exact reason why they are great hands for semi-bluffing.
Bad hands to semi bluff.
- Gutshot straight draws.
- Weak flush draws.
Care to take a wild guess as to why these aren’t great hands for semi
bluffing? Yep, that’s right… they don’t have a lot of equity.
Gutshot straight draws have poor odds of hitting, which means less equity.
Weak flushes have a problems with
reverse implied odds (even if you hit, you could still lose money to a
stronger flush), which means poor equity again.
Still, these hands are better to bluff with than a hand with 0% equity (or
close to it). It’s just that they’re not as good as the ones above.
Check out the
percentage
odds chart or the
ratio odds chart
to compare the odds of completing different types of drawing hands in
Texas Hold'em.
Semi bluffing examples.
Read the full article on
semi
bluffing examples.
This article is already long enough as it is. The examples in the article
linked to above also cover the EV of bluffing with different types of hands with
varying equity. Thrilling stuff.
When not to semi bluff.
Don’t semi bluff if you know your opponent is going to
call.
If you know that it’s very likely that your opponent will call your bet, it
defeats the object of bluffing.
If your opponent isn’t going to fold your semi bluff loses
its fold equity, so all you are left with is your actual equity in the
pot. Now, seeing as your actual equity isn’t that great because you have a
drawing hand, it doesn’t make sense to put more money in to the pot
unnecessarily.
Evaluation of semi bluffing in poker.
The best types of bluffs are with hands that have a fair chance
of winning if called. Or to put it another way, they have a decent amount of
equity in the pot although not being the best hand at the time.
The more equity your hand has when running a semi bluff the better. Think of
the equity behind you as a safety net. The more equity you have the bigger the
net is, and the more money you will save when you fall (i.e. your bluff gets
called).
This is not to say that pure bluffs don’t have their place in poker. If you
never make pure bluffs it makes you easier to play against, but I’m not going to
get in to that here. Check out
balanced
ranges for more on that.
But basically, if you’re not fluent in when and when not
to bluff, you’re far better off making semi bluffs than pure bluffs. If
you’re a
beginner poker player, simply swapping pure bluffs for semi bluffs will
increase your win rate (or lessen your loss-rate) significantly.
Go back to the awesome Texas
Hold'em Strategy.